Amul and Mother Dairy, India's largest dairy product retailers, have increased milk prices by Rs 2 per litre, marking the second such hike in 13 months. This move is expected to intensify inflationary pressures, already fuelled by global conflicts, and will impact household budgets across the country.
The Reserve Bank of India on Monday said inflationary pressures because of oil and food prices are likely to continue, giving an indication that monetary policy could be tightened further when it comes for review on Tuesday.
Food inflation was the worst form of taxation on the poor, he said. The finance minister could have spared the rise in diesel prices and increased petrol prices more, the senior Bharatiya Janata Party leader said.
No inflationary pressure in near future: Jalan
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has kept its key lending rate, the repo rate, unchanged at 5.25 per cent for the second consecutive time, citing concerns over rising energy prices, supply disruptions from the West Asia crisis, and potential inflationary pressures.
Wholesale Price Index-based inflation declined to 6.62 per cent in January, however, retail inflation remained in double digits at 10.79 per cent during the month.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
Kerala is facing increased inflationary pressure due to recent hikes in petrol and diesel prices, according to Chief Minister V D Satheesan. The state's economy is also impacted by the decline in remittances from the Gulf and higher oil prices.
India's manufacturing sector activity reached a three-month high in May, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 55.0, driven by robust domestic demand, infrastructure projects, and new business gains despite ongoing inflationary pressures.
Indian stock markets extended their gains for a second consecutive session, with the Sensex closing 736 points higher, driven by a global equity rally and a significant drop in crude oil prices following the finalisation of a peace deal between the US and Iran to end their 107-day conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, extended their rally for a fifth consecutive session, driven by optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran peace deal and a significant drop in crude oil prices. Despite hawkish remarks from the US Fed, investors remain hopeful that easing energy prices could temper inflationary pressures.
'With inflationary pressures now at elevated levels and the adverse cost environment persisting, the company has to pass on a portion of the increased costs to the market, while continuing to ensure that the impact on customers is kept to the minimum extent possible.'
Petrol and diesel prices in India have seen their fourth increase in less than two weeks, pushing cumulative hikes to nearly Rs 7.5 per litre since May 15, reaching their highest levels since May 2022. This surge, driven by global crude oil costs and the Iran conflict, is expected to exacerbate inflationary pressures and raise transportation costs across the economy.
A recently finalised peace deal between the US and Iran, set to be signed on June 19, is expected to significantly benefit India's economy by boosting exports to West Asia, stabilising the rupee, and easing inflationary pressures, according to exporters and experts.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has opted to keep its key interest rates unchanged at 5.25%, anticipating a global economic recovery following a ceasefire in the US/Israel-Iran conflict, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and currency fluctuations.
India's toll collection growth is projected to moderate to 5-7 per cent year-on-year in FY27, a 150-200 basis points reduction, primarily due to the economic impact of the West Asia conflict and a slowdown in commercial traffic, according to Crisil Ratings.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, opened lower on Tuesday, driven by a surge in global crude oil prices and continued outflows by Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), reflecting fragile market sentiment influenced by external factors.
S&P Global Ratings projects India's economic growth to slow to 6.6 per cent in FY27, down from 7.7 per cent in FY26, citing energy stress and a potential sub-par monsoon.
Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced declines in early trade due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran, which led to a surge in crude oil prices and weak global equity trends.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation surged to 9.68 per cent in May, up from 8.26 per cent in April, primarily due to significant increases in the prices of fuel and power, manufactured goods, and food items.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Tuesday urged the states to strengthen PDS to enable the government insulate the poor from the adverse impact of inflation.
Aviation stocks experienced a significant surge following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which led to a sharp decline in crude oil prices. This development has positively impacted stock markets and the broader economic outlook for India.
India Ratings and Research predicts the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will maintain the repo rate at 5.25 per cent throughout FY27, despite potential inflationary pressures from higher fuel prices, with inflation expected to remain within the central bank's tolerance band.
Global oil prices fell on Thursday to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, offering a significant economic tailwind for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, by easing inflation risks, reducing the import bill and improving the government's fiscal position.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia are beginning to disrupt India's automotive supply chain, leading to rising commodity prices, logistics bottlenecks, material shortages, and pressure on consumer demand, with two-wheeler makers already raising prices.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
Indian benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply on Monday, driven by a correction in crude oil prices due to ceasefire efforts in West Asia and strong buying in bank stocks.
However, some experts also feel that there is a case for front-loading of interest rate cut to give a push to the economy
The OECD projects India's GDP to grow at 7.6% in the current fiscal year and 6.1% in 2026-27, despite global economic challenges stemming from the Middle East conflict and energy price volatility.
The United Nations has revised downward India's economic growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent from an earlier 6.6 per cent, attributing the change to global uncertainties and economic shocks stemming from the ongoing West Asia crisis.
India's GST revenues experienced significant growth in March, reaching pre-tax cut levels, driven by increased imports and domestic sales. The report analyses the impact of tax rate changes and provides insights into future trends and economic stability.
S&P Global Ratings warns that Indian oil marketing companies like IOC, BPCL, and HPCL may face reduced profit margins due to rising crude oil prices and government pressure to maintain stable retail prices.
Few leaders since Independence have been able to establish such a direct connection with the electorate or shape the national conversation to the extent that Narendra Modi has done over the past decade, points out former Union minister Dr Karan Singh.
The Indian rupee crashed to a record closing low against the US dollar due to rising global crude oil prices, a strengthening dollar, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Monday launched a scathing attack on Prime Minister Narendra Modi over the latest fuel hike, saying mehangai manav has struck again and he has just one job of making promises during elections and attacking people's pockets at other times.
Moody's Ratings has downgraded India's growth forecast for financial year 2026-27 (FY27) to 6 per cent from 6.8 per cent, attributing the revision to weaker consumption and industrial activity, elevated energy prices, and rising input costs stemming from the West Asia conflict.
India's manufacturing sector experienced a mild recovery in April, with the HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rising to 54.7 from 53.9 in March. However, inflationary pressures intensified, with input costs increasing at the fastest pace since August 2022, largely attributed to the Middle East conflict.
Analysts predict that developments in West Asia and their impact on crude oil prices will heavily influence investor sentiment in the upcoming week. Global market trends, foreign investor activity, and rupee-dollar movement will also play a role.
Amidst a sharp run-up in gold and silver prices, investors are advised to rebalance their portfolios by booking partial profits in precious metals and reallocating to domestic equities and debt, according to financial experts.
